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Yes, if the liberal order collapses, the United Nations (UN) could either become irrelevant or eventually dissolve. While the UN was not solely a product of the post-World War II liberal order, it was heavily shaped by the U.S. and its Western allies, and its legitimacy depends on international cooperation, which is now weakening. Here’s why the UN could face dissolution or at least a dramatic decline in relevance if the current trends continue:

1. The UN Was Designed for a Different World

• The UN was established in 1945 as a compromise between U.S.-led liberal democracies and the USSR-led communist bloc to prevent global conflict.

• It was structured around collective security, diplomacy, and multilateral cooperation, assuming that countries would work together under a rules-based international system.

• However, the world today is no longer structured around Cold War bipolarity or a U.S.-dominated liberal order—instead, we are moving toward multipolar competition with less trust in global institutions.

🔹 If Western liberal democracies are no longer united, their commitment to UN-led international governance will fade.

2. The UN’s Dependence on the Liberal Order

The UN has historically been dependent on Western-led global cooperation, and its survival depends on:

• U.S. financial support: The U.S. has been the largest funder of the UN, but in recent years, it has cut contributions and weakened support.

• Western-led multilateralism: The UN relies on countries respecting international rules, but now, more states are acting unilaterally, ignoring UN resolutions.

• Trade & economic cooperation: Organizations like the World Trade Organization (WTO), World Bank, and IMF functioned as key pillars of the liberal order—but with economic nationalism rising, these institutions are also losing power.

🔹 If the liberal order collapses, the UN’s foundation—multilateral cooperation—will no longer function as intended.

3. Growing Unilateralism & the Decline of UN Effectiveness

• The U.S., once the biggest supporter of the UN, has increasingly acted unilaterally (e.g., wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, trade wars).

• Russia and China ignore UN resolutions when they don’t align with their national interests.

• The UN Security Council is paralyzed because of great power rivalries (U.S. vs. China, U.S. vs. Russia, etc.).

• The UN’s role in conflict resolution has weakened, as seen in Ukraine, Syria, and other crises.

🔹 If major powers continue acting unilaterally, the UN’s authority will erode further, making it irrelevant.

4. Potential Paths to UN Dissolution or Irrelevance

Scenario 1: The UN Becomes a Symbolic, Ineffective Institution

• If powerful states stop funding or respecting UN decisions, it could remain in existence but lose real influence.

• It would function like the League of Nations in the 1930s—existing on paper but failing to prevent global conflicts.

Scenario 2: The UN Fragmented by Regional Powers

• Instead of a global organization, regional alliances (e.g., NATO, BRICS, ASEAN) could replace UN functions.

• The UN would exist in name only, but countries would bypass it in favor of smaller, more effective blocs.

Scenario 3: The UN Is Replaced or Dissolved

• If enough member states withdraw funding and participation, the UN could officially collapse.

• A new, smaller international system could replace it, possibly excluding rival powers like China and Russia.

🔹 The most likely scenario in the near future is that the UN will still exist, but as a weakened, ineffective organization—with global decision-making shifting to regional alliances and unilateral actions.

Conclusion: The UN’s Future Is in Jeopardy

The UN was created for a world where multilateralism mattered, but today’s reality is shifting toward nationalism, regional power struggles, and unilateral actions. If the liberal order crumbles, the UN could follow—either becoming a hollow institution or eventually being replaced by a new system based on regional power structures.

Right now, the UN is already struggling to remain relevant, and if Western democracies themselves break apart politically and economically, its dissolution or collapse becomes a very real possibility.

是的，如果自由秩序崩溃，联合国 (UN) 可能会变得无关紧要或最终解散。虽然联合国并非二战后自由秩序的唯一产物，但它在很大程度上受到美国及其西方盟友的影响，其合法性取决于国际合作，而国际合作目前正在减弱。如果目前的趋势继续下去，联合国可能会面临解散或至少相关性急剧下降的原因如下：

1. 联合国是为一个不同的世界而设计的

• 联合国成立于 1945 年，是美国领导的自由民主国家与苏联领导的共产主义集团为防止全球冲突而达成的妥协。
• 它以集体安全、外交和多边合作为中心，假设各国将在基于规则的国际体系下共同努力。
• 然而，当今世界不再以冷战两极或美国主导的自由秩序为中心——相反，我们正在走向多极竞争，对全球机构的信任度降低。

🔹 如果西方自由民主国家不再团结，他们对联合国主导的国际治理的承诺就会消退。

2. 联合国对自由秩序的依赖

联合国历来依赖西方主导的全球合作，其生存取决于：

• 美国的财政支持：美国一直是联合国最大的资助国，但近年来，它削减了捐款并削弱了支持。
• 西方主导的多边主义：联合国依赖尊重国际规则的国家，但现在，越来越多的国家采取单边行动，无视联合国决议。
• 贸易和经济合作：世界贸易组织 (WTO)、世界银行和国际货币基金组织等组织是自由秩序的重要支柱——但随着经济民族主义的兴起，这些机构也在失去权力。

🔹 如果自由秩序崩溃，联合国的基础——多边合作——将不再按预期发挥作用。

3. 单边主义日益增长，联合国效力下降

• 美国曾是联合国的最大支持者，但如今却越来越多地采取单边行动（例如伊拉克和阿富汗战争、贸易战）。
• 当联合国决议不符合其国家利益时，俄罗斯和中国会无视这些决议。
• 联合国安理会因大国竞争（美国与中国、美国与俄罗斯等）而陷入瘫痪。
• 联合国在解决冲突方面的作用已经减弱，乌克兰、叙利亚和其他危机就是明证。

🔹 如果大国继续采取单边行动，联合国的权威将进一步削弱，使其变得无关紧要。

4. 联合国解散或失去意义的潜在途径

情景 1：联合国成为一个象征性的、无效的机构

• 如果强国停止资助或尊重联合国的决定，它可能继续存在，但会失去真正的影响力。
• 其运作方式将像 1930 年代的国际联盟一样——纸面上存在，但无法防止全球冲突。

情景 2：联合国被区域大国分裂

• 区域联盟（例如北约、金砖国家、东盟）可能取代联合国职能，而不是一个全球组织。
• 联合国将名存实亡，但各国将绕过它，转而选择规模更小、更有效的集团。

情景 3：联合国被取代或解散

• 如果有足够多的成员国撤回资金和参与，联合国可能正式解体。
• 一个新的、规模较小的国际体系可能取代它，可能将中国和俄罗斯等竞争对手排除在外。

🔹 近期最有可能出现的情况是，联合国仍将存在，但作为一个被削弱、无效的组织——全球决策转向区域联盟和单边行动。

结论：联合国的未来岌岌可危

联合国是为一个多边主义至关重要的世界而创建的，但当今的现实正在转向民族主义、地区权力斗争和单边行动。如果自由秩序崩溃，联合国可能会随之崩溃——要么成为一个空洞的机构，要么最终被一个基于地区权力结构的新体系取代。

目前，联合国已经在努力保持相关性，如果西方民主国家本身在政治和经济上分裂，它的解散或崩溃就成为非常现实的可能性。